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UPDATE : Green Bookwon Best Picture at the 2019 Oscars .
Last Updated : February 23 , 2019
With theOscarsright around the corner , it ’s time to take a look at which films have the best guessing of win Best Picture . This is officially the most irregular laurels slipstream in late memory . For the first fourth dimension in history , no picture won multiple top prizes from the various industry society . Two of those victors , Eighth GradeandCan You Ever Forgive Me?(the Writers Guild winners ) , arenotBest Picture nominees at the 91st Academy Awards , completely flummoxing even those who have been predicting the Oscars for years . It truly is anybody ’s ballgame , which adds an component of machination to the proceedings . In some room , it ’s more fun this room than in a normal class when one or two frontrunners emerge way ahead of the pack .
At this point , it ’s probably prosperous to say whatwon’twin , but we ’re going to judge to make sense of the Best Picture battlefield . Here are the eight film in the running rate from most potential to least likely to take the gold statue habitation .
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Roma
Alfonso Cuarón ’s intimate , semi - autobiographic face at a mediate social class family ’s maid ’s life in Mexico City isrightfully one of the most acclaimed films of 2018 . It scored the most Oscar nominating speech of any movie this year ( 10 ) and has had a lot of success in the forerunner . Admittedly , most of its notable wins are for Cuarón ’s direction , butRomawas also receivedBest Picture at the Critics ' Choice Awardsand theBAFTAs . This is a film that just about everybody agree is exceptionally crafted and well - roleplay , meaning it should do well on the preferential vote . Academy members have tremendous deference for Cuarón , andRoma’spair of playacting nomination mean it struck a chord with the actor branch - the largest Academy leg there is .
All that said , there are a few things puzzle out againstRoma . For starters , no foreign language film has ever win Best Picture . WithRomaall but assured to receive Best Foreign Language Film , voters may appear elsewhere for Best Picture . There ’s a reason why there are separate categories . to boot , it stay to be hear if the Academy is rightfully quick to embrace Netflix original moving-picture show . Romabeing nominated for Best Picture is an indicant the game is changing , but a win would really be a watershed moment and afford the floodgates , get other auteurs know the swarm colossus is a reputable and serious distributer . Another affair to keep in psyche is that in the age of the sliding scale , there tends to be more Picture / Director splits , and if Cuarón is gain ground Best Director , one of the other candidate may take home Picture .
Green Book
harbinger its Best Picture campaigning by bring home the bacon the People ’s Choice Award at the 2018 Toronto International Film Festival , Peter Farrelly’sGreen Bookbecame one of the surprise title this awards season and ended up being a major force . It acquire Best Picture - Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes andearned Best Picture honors at the 2019 Producers Guild Awards . Crucially , the PGA trophy is voted on by preferential ballot , just like the Oscars ' Best Picture . In a wild and unpredictable time of year , Green Bookis arguably the closest thing we have to a consensus pick . But it ’s certainly not an brassbound lock chamber . Farrelly did n’t receive a Best Director nomination at the Oscars , and the film ’s screenplay fall behind toEighth Gradeat WGA . Maybe it does n’t have as much widespread musical accompaniment as some would think .
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Green Bookis also the most - point Best Picture campaigner , with one arguing after another . Surviving members of Donald Shirley ’s family took outlet with historical inaccuracies , Farrelly ’s plan of attack was dismiss as conventional , safe , and akin toDriving Miss Daisy , andco - author Nick Vallelonga had to blue-pencil his Twitterafter an anti - Muslim post of his from 2015 resurfaced . Despite all that , Green Bookkeeps chugging along and has some telling boasts on its résumé . If anything , a case can be made the oil of vitriol lobbied against it has galvanized its lover into voting for it , so it would n’t be a shock if this dramedy stop up as the big achiever .
Black Panther
Finally , a laughable Bible picture made its room into the Best Picture subject area . After the likes ofThe Dark Knight , Logan , andWonder Womanwere ignored , Ryan Coogler ’s groundbreaking entry into the Marvel Cinematic Universe left an imprint . The film was noteworthy for transcending its genre by distinguish a story that was ground in relevant and serious social themes that manifestly spoke to millions of the great unwashed around the globe . Awards elector had no choice but to take notice , asBlack Pantherearned nomination from the Golden Globes , Producers Guild , and others . It evenwon good Cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards .
That SAG victory illustrates actors enjoyedBlack Panther , but that may not be enough to get it over the bump . In full term of Oscar nomination , the movie was not spot for directing , screenwriting , or acting , and it ’s very difficult for a picture show to win Best Picture without at least nods in those major categories . Facing minimal rebound , Black Panthermay flourish on a discriminatory ballot , but Marvel fans should n’t order their wager on the moving picture taking home the top prize . If it took the Academy this long to make a superhero cinema a Best Picture candidate , they in all likelihood are n’t quick to top one as the best picture of the year just yet . babe step .
BlacKkKlansman
premier at Cannes in May 2018 , Spike Lee ’s uncompromising looking at race relations in America stupefy in voter ' minds and became his most acclaimed work to date . BlacKkKlansmanis the first of Lee ’s articulation to be constitute for Best Picture , and also scored nod for Best Director and Best Supporting Actor . The film popped up frequently on the precursors , earning sexual love from the Golden Globes , Producers Guild , Directors Guild , Screen Actors Guild , Writers Guild , and others . It check up on all the corner one would appear for in an Oscar frontrunner , so why is n’t it in high spirits on the list ?
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Unfortunately for Lee and his gang , they ’ve spend most of awards season watch other hoi polloi win in their respective categories . BlacKkKlansman’smost prominent win to date is Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs , and withCan You Ever Forgive Me?surprising at WAG , it ’s no guaranteeBlacKkKlansmancan even win the Oscar there . This one still has obscure horse electric potential because of the preferential vote and Lee ’s overdue narrative . Many citizenry were thrilled to see him finally hit some nomination and will press for him . However , ifBlacKkKlansmanwas a serious terror , it probably would have acquire a few other matter by now . Being shut out by the order create it hard for it to overleap to the top .
Page 2 of 2:A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, and More
A Star is Born
Released to deafening hoopla at the 2018 Venice Film Festival , Bradley Cooper ’s remake ofA Star is Bornseemed destined to steamroll awards season and mayhap even cross all of the major categories . At the prison term , the moving picture seemed too with child to fail . It had tremendous hotshot power behind it ( Cooper and Lady Gaga ) , did extremely well at the box office , and frolic a orca soundtrack that spawned a smash single ( " Shallow " ) . And then the various awarding bodies started pass on out the Oscar precursors , andA Star is Bornbecame a cautionary tale of why you never desire to be the foreordain Oscar frontrunner in September . That ’s too long a clock time to hold on to the pole placement , allowing other films to emerge and rebound to go down in .
A Star is Born’scampaign depart to come down apart when it fall behind Best Drama at the Golden Globes and everything snowballed from there . The film received nothing from the major guilds , with Cooper even coming up dead in the Best First - Time Director category at DGA . When he was disregard in the Oscars ' Best Director category , it became clearA Star is Bornwasn’t winning . Yes , something similar happened with Ben Affleck andArgonot too long ago , but the key difference there isArgoswept the season . It make headway all of the awardsA Star is Borncouldn’t . Now , the one - time Best Picture favorite has to lick its injury and make peace with Best Original Song . That might be its only win of the eventide , a turn of consequence few could have seen come months ago .
Bohemian Rhapsody
overtake an extremely turbulent product , Bohemian Rhapsodybecame the year ’s unlikeliest Best Picture nominee . Premiering back in November to assorted reviewspanning it for its formulaic story and sanitized treatment of Freddie Mercury ’s engrossing life , many thought the biopic would just be a crowd - pleasing boxwood office hit . However , Bohemian Rhapsodypicked up numerous accolade nomination and winnings ( includingBest dramatic play at the Golden Globes ) and do to go down the Academy Awards with five nod . Star Rami Malek is also the Best Actor frontrunner for his turn as Mercury , instance the pic has a lot of financial support with the voters .
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TheBohemian Rhapsodyteam might have to be contented with Malek being their biggest winner of the dark . That Globes victory remain the lone win of annotation for the film overall , after it miss at the PGA and SAG . There ’s also the Bryan Singer site , which bulk large over the moving picture despitethe plaster bandage and gang ’s best seek to distance themselves from it all . It ’s lawful Isaac M. Singer himself is n’t up for any Oscars , but the optics ofBohemian Rhapsodywinning in the wake of Me Too and Time ’s Up would be super problematic and send the incorrect variety of message . distinctly , the Mercury biopic is loved by a section of the Academy , but it plausibly does n’t have enough to get across the finish line .
The Favourite
draw withRomafor the most Oscar nominations this class , Yorgos Lanthimos ' deliciously - twirl costume dramatic event proceed Fox Searchlight ’s dominance on the awards electrical circuit ( they releasedThe Shape of WaterandThree Billboardslast class ) and try the acquired taste of Lanthimos could appeal to the masses ( of Academy voter , at least ) . fire by a trio of strong performance , The Favouritetold a compelling story of love and power in eighteenth 100 England , depicting a fascinating rivalry between Lady Sarah ( Rachel Weisz ) and her full cousin Abigail ( Emma Stone ) as they struggle for the tenderness of Queen Anne ( Olivia Colman ) .
The Favourite’s10 nominating address would on the face of it betoken it ’s a top contender to peck up a few awards , but it does n’t appear to be one of the top wienerwurst in the backwash . Much like many of the other films on this lean , it did n’t advance anything from the major guilds , and its gravid night at the BAFTAs ( where it won seven trophy ) may have more to do with its depicted object subject . As indicated above , Lanthimos is n’t for everyone , which is n’t necessarily the best recipe for a Best Picture victory . There ’s some dubiousness over howThe Favouritewill menu on the preferential ballot . Second and third plaza votes are key there , and voters may put something a little more approachable in those slots .
Vice
Director Adam McKay reinvent himself as an Academy darling withThe Big Short , which won Best Adapted Screenplay and was nominated for Best Picture a few years ago . He continued on that trajectory withVice , a darkly mirthful look at Dick Cheney ’s rise up the political run . Bolstered by Christian Bale ’s scary , transformative functioning as the former VP , Vicepulled aBohemian Rhapsodyandrose above its miscellaneous reviewsto become a prominent player on the awards circuit . Due to its recent arrival on the scene , Vicemissed notices from the National Board of Review and American Film Institute , but picked up several nominations after it at long last screen . It ’s up for eight Oscars , and may have a nip in the unbalanced Best Original Screenplay race .
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As for Picture , Viceis perhaps the longest dead reckoning . While the film has its fans , it decidedly was n’t beloved by all , with McKay ’s freakish and bold stylistic choices proving to be divisive . That ’s rarely a safe affair for Best Picture hopefuls , especially in the age of the preferential vote . And withVicealso fail to pick up any award at the order , it ’s clear it does n’t have far-flung industry support .
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